Ross Gerber seems to think that higher rates, higher inflation and higher pay will lead to higher growth for the US economy and for the country. Perhaps he’s been keeping company with Hunter Biden. Whatever he’s on, I’d like some of it. A chorus of of banks are busily forecasting recession by next year including the ubiquitous Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank, see their chart below for how recession has affected the stock market.
With the S&P 500 down 21% year-to-date, the situation for stocks is pretty grim — but according to legendary investor Jim Rogers, it’s just the start.
“This has to be the worst bear market in my lifetime, which means it will go down a lot and it will last a long time,” the 79-year-old told ET Now earlier this month.
I am of the opinion that we are more likely to get a decent rally now, perhaps a far as 4,200 to catch out all the bears and there has been a good reversal on the S&P today after we opened 1.5% down on the futures. The oil price is trending down in the short term and all we need to see is a retrenchment in bond yields in the short term to propel the rally further but Ross Gerber’s advice to switch off your phones and head for the beach and everything will be back to normal seems to be in fantasy land.
My favourite strategist on Wall Street is Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley and he believes that we are underestimating the recession and the effect on earnings and valuations. He sees a low of 3,200 on the S&P and I think I would rather take his advice than Ross Gerber’s.
You can read more with the 3 R’s !
Be careful out there.